TU Dublin's Dr Adnan Velic delivers Barrington Lecture at IBEC headquarters
Dr Adnan Velic of the School of Accounting, Economics & Finance at TU Dublin, delivered the prestigious Barrington Lecture at IBEC Headquarters in Dublin on Thursday, 28 May, as part of the Barrington Award, one of the highest honours awarded by the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland (SSISI).
The lecture, titled "International Comovements and Persistence in Irish Inflation: A Nonlinear Approach", showcased Dr Velic's latest research into the relationship between Irish inflation and international inflation trends, offering valuable insights into the factors shaping inflation dynamics in Ireland.
Following the lecture, Dr Velic was presented with the Barrington Medal by SSISI President Jennifer Banim and Vice President Patrick Paul Walsh in recognition of his outstanding contribution to economic research. 
Dr Velic with SSISI Vice President Patrick Paul Walsh
Dr Velic's research examined the extent to which Irish inflation moves in tandem with international inflation and how these relationships have evolved over time. His findings reveal a strong overall connection between Irish and international inflation, even when energy and food prices are excluded. However, the research also highlights important differences across sectors and periods.
One key finding is that while some areas of Irish inflation, particularly energy-related categories such as liquid fuels and lubricants for personal transport, closely track international trends, others are influenced by uniquely Irish factors. For example, household electricity, gas and heating costs are shaped by Ireland's energy mix, infrastructure, supplier hedging strategies, government interventions and growing energy demand from sectors such as data centres.
Similarly, Irish food inflation exhibits a weaker relationship with international food inflation than might be expected. Factors including Ireland's economic links with the UK, competition within the retail sector, labour costs and the country's geographic dependence on maritime transport all contribute to these differences.
The research also found that international inflation exerts a significant pull on Irish inflation over time. The speed at which Irish inflation returns to international trends has increased steadily, particularly in the years leading up to the Global Financial Crisis.
Dr Velic's analysis showed that goods inflation tends to drive convergence towards international inflation levels, while services inflation can slow this process. Importantly, deviations between Irish and international inflation do not adjust in a linear way. Larger inflation gaps tend to correct much more rapidly, suggesting that inflationary pressures become increasingly difficult to sustain when they move too far from international norms.
The lecture further explored how increasing trade openness and Ireland's evolving position within the global economy have influenced inflation dynamics. Dr Velic found that stronger international integration contributed to greater alignment between Irish and international inflation before the Global Financial Crisis. While these relationships weakened somewhat in the years that followed, international factors continue to play a critical role in shaping domestic inflation outcomes.
The findings offer important insights for policymakers, economists and businesses seeking to understand inflationary pressures in an increasingly interconnected global economy.
Dr Velic's research paper is due to be published in the Journal of the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland and is available to read online here. Presentation slides from the lecture are also available here, while a recording of the full lecture will be published on the SSISI YouTube channel in the coming weeks.
Congratulations to Dr Adnan Velic on this significant achievement and on representing TU Dublin at one of Ireland's most distinguished academic lecture series.